With just a few days ahead of the highly anticipated 2024 presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris I wanted to provide my take on it. While this analysis reflects my own interpretation of current trends and observations after analyzing various polls, campaign behaviors, and the political landscape, I want to emphasize that it constitutes my own personal opinion and not that of any firm I represent. Based on what I am seeing, though, it appears that Trump holds a significant advantage heading into Election Day.
Trump’s Lead in Key Swing States
The current outlook points to an election where Trump holds a distinct advantage, particularly in critical swing states. Public polls, such as those aggregated by RealClearPolitics, reveal Trump leading in pivotal battlegrounds. Notably, in comparison to 2020—where he lost by narrow margins in states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan—Trump is now showing a marked improvement. For example, in Wisconsin, where Biden led before Election Day in 2020, Trump is ahead by a considerable margin this cycle, underscoring an approximately 5-7 point shift.
This trend is not limited to the Midwest. In states like North Carolina, Trump’s current lead reflects a similar trajectory to 2016, reinforcing his advantage. Nevada also showcases a reversal from 2020, with Trump now outpacing Harris by a margin of 1.5 points compared to Biden’s previous lead of four points. The national polling average reflects an approximate 8-point swing toward Trump compared to 2020, where Biden held a significant 7.8% lead going into Election Day. Now, Trump edges out Harris by a modest 0.3%.
Campaign Strategies Signal Confidence and Defense
Campaign strategies often reveal more than public polls. Trump’s campaign is employing a broad approach, targeting states beyond traditional Republican strongholds, such as rallies in New Mexico and a high-profile event at Madison Square Garden in New York. This outreach suggests a campaign confident in its position, with resources being allocated to bolster down-ballot races.
Conversely, the Harris campaign has been focused on shoring up its core voter base, particularly among Black voters and younger progressives—an effort complicated by internal divisions within the party. The balancing act between appealing to pro-Palestinian supporters and retaining traditionally Democratic Jewish voters has been a visible challenge. The contrasting campaign strategies indicate a Republican effort to expand influence while Democrats are working to prevent further erosion within their coalition.
Supporter Sentiment and Party Dynamics
Media sentiment and supporter narratives further illustrate the state of the race. Prominent outlets have published articles geared towards calming Democratic anxieties, emphasizing how tight and consequential the election could be. In contrast, Republican commentary leans more confidently, suggesting that Trump’s momentum is undeniable.
Notably, the positioning of other Republican and Democratic candidates in Senate and congressional races also provides insight. In battleground states, Republican candidates have aligned with Trump’s campaign, while Democratic contenders have often maintained distance from Harris’s campaign, emphasizing their independence to attract moderate voters. This trend is exemplified by Senator Bob Casey’s strategic alignment in Pennsylvania and Senator Sherrod Brown’s careful messaging in Ohio.
Endorsements and Shifting Allegiances
Endorsements, while not always game-changing, can signal momentum. Trump’s unexpected endorsement from high-profile figures like John F. Kennedy Jr. and his promise of a cabinet position have bolstered his appeal among certain voter segments. On the other hand, the Harris campaign’s endorsements, including those from Liz and Dick Cheney, while notable, may not carry the same voter influence.
The decision of historically progressive media entities like The Washington Post and The Los Angeles Times not to issue endorsements this year has also raised eyebrows. Analysts speculate this neutrality may stem from ownership concerns about a potential Trump presidency and the ramifications of opposing it openly.
Economic Issues Drive Voter Priorities
The core of voters’ concerns, reflected in various polls, remains centered on the economy, inflation, and immigration—areas where Republicans historically command more trust. Harris’s campaign has largely framed the election as a fight to protect democracy and reproductive rights, a stance resonating with the Democratic base but less so with swing voters focused on economic recovery. Trump’s campaign, albeit interspersed with personal grievances and combative rhetoric, has effectively highlighted economic and border security issues.
A Shift in Momentum and Voter Reassessment
After Biden’s withdrawal and Harris’s nomination, there was a temporary boost in Democratic optimism, bolstered by new media coverage. However, as Harris campaigned and addressed issues, some voters were reminded of the challenges she faced during the 2020 primary and her vice-presidential tenure. This voter reassessment is evident in polling data that swung back in Trump’s favor as the campaign neared its final days.
The Role of High-Profile Figures and the Assassination Attempt
The assassination attempt on Trump, initially a dramatic and pivotal moment, has had lasting effects beyond its immediate impact. Elon Musk’s pivot to vocal and financial support for Trump, coupled with strategic investments in key states like Pennsylvania, highlights the significant influence of major backers.
Final Thoughts: A Close but Significant Advantage
Renowned analyst Nate Silver recently suggested that Trump’s support could be as strong as a 55-45 split nationally. While such a claim may be debatable, it is clear Trump is in a stronger position than in 2020, and could potentially secure close to 300 electoral votes. This election, however, is poised for a contentious aftermath, as both sides brace for legal challenges and extended vote counts. The real uncertainty lies in how swiftly and decisively results will be accepted.
Barring unforeseen shifts in the remaining days, the trajectory suggests that Trump may return to the White House. Whether the nation sees stability or contention in the days following will depend heavily on the margins and public acceptance of the outcome.
